The current surge in stocks is ‘eerily close’ to the 2009 market rally, and the S&P 500 could jump another 12% if the trend continues, Datatrek says

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  • The current stock market rally looks “eerily close” to the one starting in 2009, and if the trend continues, the S&P 500 could rally an additional 12% from current levels, according to Datatrek.
  • In a note published on Wednesday, Datatrek co-founder Nicholas Colas highlighted that the current market rally from the March 23 bottom is just two points higher than where the 2009 market rally stood at same point in time. 
  • The S&P 500 could follow the 2009 playbook and hit 3,763, especially if 2021 earnings estimates continue to rise, Colas said.
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The 2009 stock market rally from its March 6 bottom looks “eerily close” to the current rally from the March 23 bottom, according to Datatrek.

In a note published on Wednesday, Datatrek co-founder Nicholas Colas said the 2020 rally in stocks is tracking just two points above the 2009 market rally, 105 days after their respective bottoms. 

Datatrek Research

And taking cues from the 2009 market rally, stocks could continue to rise 12% to 3,763 into year-end, according to Datatrek.

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Besides price action, there’s one big similarity in the S&P 500 market rallies of 2009 and 2020: earnings expectations. In both years, investors believed in “a powerful rebound in corporate earnings,” said Colas.

In 2009, annualized earnings of the S&P 500 bottomed at $43 per share in the first quarter of 2009, and reached $91 a share in 2011, representing a record high at the time. And in 2020, S&P 500 earnings are expected to bottom at $117 a share, but analysts expect they will hit record highs of $163 per share by the end of next year, according to the note.

While the stock market surges off the 2009 and 2020 bottoms look similar, there are some differences under the hood.

In 2009, the market was led higher by financial stocks, whereas technology stocks have driven the 2020 rally. Additionally, the 2009 market rally happened after the US presidential election, whereas the 2020 market rally is happening before a US presidential election, Colas said. 

In the end, the comparison between the 2009 and 2020 stock market rally is reminder to investors that “bottoms occur when government policy responses match the scope of an economic downturn,” Colas said. 

Going forward, three things need to happen for the 12% rally into year-end to play out: Big tech leadership can’t falter, earnings estimates for 2021 need to continue to rise, and the upcoming November election outcome “needs to be decisive,” Colas concluded.

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