Should Bitcoin traders be worried about lower highs ever since $12K?

The previous months have given incredible volatility across the boards, including Bitcoin (BTC). However, in recent weeks, the volatility drastically decreased to a state of boredom.

The overall momentum and bullishness have left the crypto markets only to be replaced by range-bound sideways movements. In other words, very boring. 

However, what is the crucial Bitcoin price level to watch for in the coming week? Let’s take a look at the technicals. 

Bitcoin facing $10,800 as short term breaker for upward continuation

BTC/USDT 2-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The 2-hour chart is showing a clear downward trending structure. The price of Bitcoin has been making lower highs since $12,400. This structure of lower highs has continued until the recent rejection at $11,000.

Next to that, the bullish divergence has played out relatively well as the market bounced up from its recent low at $10,200. This bounce couldn’t surpass the $11,000 area and formed a range-bound structure.

However, the crucial breaker for any upward continuation is found at $10,800. If Bitcoin breaks through that order block, potential continuation toward the massive resistance at $11,200-11,400 becomes increasingly likely.

Failure of a breakthrough at $10,800 and a potential reversal and tests of the $10,200 area are on the table. 

The total crypto market cap remains on the fence

Total market capitalization cryptocurrency 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

The total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies is showing a clear range-bound structure with significant levels. 

First of all, the resistance area is found at $335-340 billion, which was previously found to be a support zone. 

In a similar pattern to Bitcoin, if that resistance area breaks, continuation is likely toward the highs. However, another rejection would increase the chances of a further corrective move toward $260-275 billion. 

This $260-275 billion area will most likely be hit if the $300 billion support zone is lost. Would that be a bad case for the markets? No, it’s very healthy to have pullbacks in a market cycle to mark resistance/support flip confirmations. Put simply, these tests are very beneficial for any further continuation of the upward trend. 

Bitcoin dominance pauses  at 60%

BTC Dominance 1-week chart. Source: TradingView

When the momentum starts to drain away from the markets, the altcoin movements’ strength also equivalently drops down. The focus comes back on to Bitcoin as it’s the primary mover of the market.

The Bitcoin dominance index fell beneath 64% but is currently resting on the 60% level. 

The dominance chart is hard to analyze as a valuable price asset — because it’s not — but useful data can still be determined from the chart. 

From a purely technical point of view, a potential rally towards 64% is likely for Bitcoin dominance, after which a rejection or bearish support/resistance flip would shift the momentum back to altcoins.

Ether historically weak in every Q4 

In the meantime, a weak Q4 for altcoins may not come as a surprise. If history is analyzed, the last three months of the year haven’t been too kind for Ether (ETH). 

ETH/BTC 1-week chart. Source: TradingView

As the chart shows, price bottoms for Ether are typically found in the last quarter of the year, specifically in December. At the same time, Q4 is typically one of the most volatile periods for cryptocurrencies in general. 

What’s more, this chart shows another hidden message that September is, in general, bad for Ether and the crypto markets. In that case, a retracement of Ether towards 0.025 sats wouldn’t be a surprise and a healthy retest of the previous resistance and accumulation area. 

Many of the investors are expecting the markets to continue moving up heavily just like in late 2017. However, this momentum is tough to achieve and will only come back once the market gets in a similar state of euphoria. 

Until then, support/resistance flips and corrective movements after a 100% surge are very likely to persist.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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