{"id":108933,"date":"2021-01-20T17:26:01","date_gmt":"2021-01-20T17:26:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/precoinnews.com\/?p=108933"},"modified":"2021-01-20T17:26:01","modified_gmt":"2021-01-20T17:26:01","slug":"liam-dann-what-will-a-joe-biden-presidency-mean-for-nz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/precoinnews.com\/politics\/liam-dann-what-will-a-joe-biden-presidency-mean-for-nz\/","title":{"rendered":"Liam Dann: What will a Joe Biden presidency mean for NZ?"},"content":{"rendered":"
So, the Biden era begins – with pop stars, poetry and a pandemic-friendly take on the traditional pomp and ceremony of US politics.<\/p>\n
But beyond the obvious cultural shift and (hopefully) a more competent Covid<\/span> response, what can we expect from the Biden White House in the next four years?<\/span><\/p>\n And what, if any, impact will it have on New Zealand?<\/p>\n Predictably a grab-bag of campaign promises and prominent political appointments has already been dubbed “Bidenomics”.<\/p>\n It has a catchy ring to it, but where exactly Bidenomics will land in historic context is far from clear.<\/p>\n Should we brace for the grand reformist zeal of Franklin D Roosevelt and his new deal? Or will Biden be stuck in the more conservative centrist mould of fellow Democrats like Bill Clinton and Barrack Obama.<\/p>\n If we use Wall Street as a rough guide to expectations then the jury is still out on the net impact of his big policy plans.<\/p>\n The market soared on his election – with the caveat that investors initially expected a Republican Senate to limit Biden’s policy influence.<\/p>\n With control of the Senate we can certainly now expect to see Biden push through higher taxes. He’s talked about raising an additional US$4 trillion in taxes by increasing the top tax rate and the corporate tax rate.<\/p>\n That won’t be popular on Wall Street.<\/p>\n Nor will plans to tighten financial regulations \u2013 something that looks highly likely with former Federal Reserve Governor Janet Yellen taking over the top job at the US Treasury.<\/p>\n But big business will cope. Far from being radical, much of the change will simply reverse Trump policies.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, Biden and Democrat control of the Senate means more economic stimulus is likely to get the green light.<\/p>\n And what’s good for the economy is good for business.<\/p>\n Biden’s “America Rescue Plan” is a US$1.9 Trillion proposal that includes a boost for the fight against Covid with mass vaccinations and wider testing regime.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n But it would also include direct financial stimulus, with $1,400 cheques for most households, a raise in the minimum wage and a welfare boost for the jobless.<\/p>\n If he can push it all through it would be a significant shot in the arm \u2013 literally and figuratively – for middle-America.<\/p>\n As was clear in today’s speech Biden is a very different kind of President to Donald Trump, but he is a savvy politician and there are some popular Trump policies he won’t necessarily be in a hurry to reverse.<\/p>\n Infrastructure investment, for example, was big on both Trump and Biden’s list of promises.<\/p>\n As in New Zealand, there is bipartisan support for government infrastructure spending as way to keep the economy moving with longer-term benefits.<\/p>\n While Biden will bring a focus on different (and greener) projects, the big issue will remain the ability to deliver in a meaningful time frame.<\/p>\n In trade too \u2013 the big one for New Zealand perspective – there may not be as much of a policy shift as one might have thought.<\/p>\n Trump’s China tariffs are expected to be left in place, for now at least.<\/p>\n The belief that the US needs to stand-up to China has become something of a bipartisan issue in Washington.<\/p>\n Still, we should expect the rhetoric from a Biden administration to be more diplomatic.<\/p>\n If that lowers trade tension it will be helpful for New Zealand.<\/p>\n Beyond the conflict with China, one would hope that the Biden administration is open to working more constructively with the World Trade Organisation.<\/p>\n But a return to the days of the superpower pushing for globalist, multilateral free trade seems unlikely.<\/p>\n Biden faces some big choices and will have to weigh short term political opportunity against the pragmatic concerns of longer-term stability.<\/p>\n Obama’s economic plans ended up considerably less radical than many had hoped in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis.<\/p>\n The bar though has been set very low by the outgoing regime.<\/p>\n If Biden and his team can enact some basic policy quickly and position America’s economy to ride the momentum of the Covid recovery then good growth will come.<\/p>\n From a New Zealand perspective, an end to the worst ravages of the pandemic and a strong economic recovery in the US can only be a good thing.<\/p>\n When the US economy booms the world usually follows.<\/p>\n