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<\/p>\nTemperatures in March will be critical to determining the impact of any unusual heatwave conditions on this year’s wheat crop in North India.<\/p>\n
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It is that time of the year when the crop enters its vital grain-filling stage, say meteorologists and crop experts.<\/p>\n
So far, the high day temperatures in the North are not believed to have any significant impact on the final yields since the crop hasn’t entered a stage where heat affects yields.<\/p>\n
But all this may change dramatically in the next fortnight or so.<\/p>\n
In Central India, the wheat crop may have escaped the current high temperatures, mainly those sown early, and passed the grain-filling stage.<\/p>\n
According to the extended range forecast of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued on February 9, in Northwest and Central India – comprising some of the main wheat-growing states of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh (UP), and Madhya Pradesh (MP) – the minimum temperatures will rise 2-3 degrees Celsius (°C) until February 10-11 and fall thereafter until February 13.<\/p>\n
In the following week, from February 16-22, minimum temperatures will rise 1-3°C above normal in Northwest India but will be near normal in the rest of the country.<\/p>\n
Grain filling in wheat usually starts end-February\/March in North India.<\/p>\n
It usually lasts for 28-30 days when, as maintained by crop scientists, on an average 150 kilogram (kg) of wheat, grain gets formed on each hectare of land.<\/p>\n
This makes about 4,500 kg of wheat grain in nearly 30 days per hectare.<\/p>\n
This is also the average yield of wheat in the states of Punjab, Haryana, and West UP.<\/p>\n
“So far, the average temperatures, which are maximum and minimum divided by two, are around 2-3°C above normal.<\/p>\n
“The fact that wheat crop in the North is still in the vegetative state means that the impact is still manageable.<\/p>\n
“But if high temperature persists until end-March and average temperatures are above normal for prolonged periods, it would mean that the days needed for adequate filling of grain will reduce and impact the final yields,” says K K Singh, former head of IMD’s agromet division.<\/p>\n
He says any unusual rise in temperature will lower the period of grain filling in wheat from 30 days to say 25-27 days.<\/p>\n
This will mean fewer quantities of grain and a greater impact on the final yield.<\/p>\n
“The only way to minimise the impact of this heat is to go for extra irrigation of the fields.<\/p>\n
“Ideally, it should be done through sprinklers. In the absence of sprinklers, even flood irrigation may be done so that the plant remains well watered,” says Singh.<\/p>\n
Dry weather, coupled with gusty winds, is bad for the standing wheat crop in its grain-filling stage, he adds.<\/p>\n
A significant drop in per-hectare yields of wheat for the second year due to unusually high temperatures may have an impact on the Centre’s annual wheat procurement plan.<\/p>\n
This could also translate into higher-than-usual prices.<\/p>\n
The Centre recently decided to lower the price at which it was offering wheat from the central pool stocks by deciding not to add any transportation charge.<\/p>\n
According to reports, it is also contemplating stock limits and liquidating more wheat from its inventories than the planned 3 million tonnes to further cool prices.<\/p>\n
“The big reason for the rise in temperatures is the near absence of any western disturbance in North India.<\/p>\n
“Whatever little it is seeing will go by February 17. In UP and Delhi, the day temperatures have not yet touched 30-32°C, while it has done so in Gujarat, Central and Eastern MP, Maharashtra, and Telangana in the past few days.<\/p>\n
“Our understanding is that from the middle of March, temperatures will start rising, possibly impacting wheat in North India,” says Mahesh Palawat, vice-president meteorology and climate change, Skymet Weather Services.<\/p>\n