![](\"https:\/\/graphics.axios.com\/hermesv2\/2023-01-23-1551-size-of-spending\/fallbacks\/2023-01-23-1551-size-of-spending-fallback.png\")
\n
![](\"https:\/\/graphics.axios.com\/hermesv2\/2023-01-23-1551-size-of-spending\/fallbacks\/2023-01-23-1551-size-of-spending-apple.png\")
<\/p>\n
\n<\/p>\n
Negotiations to raise the country's debt ceiling will likely put Republicans in a vise, torn among competing conservative pressures, the inevitable need to work with Democrats and the realities of basic budgetary math.<\/p>\n
The big picture: <\/strong>Fiscal conservatives want to balance the federal budget. Former President Trump has warned his party to leave Medicare and Social Security untouched. It\u2019s basically impossible to do both \u2014 and every way House Republicans could try to square that circle comes with political risk.<\/p>\n Driving the news:<\/strong> House Republicans have said they\u2019ll refuse to raise the debt ceiling unless it\u2019s accompanied by reductions in federal spending. But the party appears to be deeply divided as to what programs should be on the chopping block.<\/p>\n Reality check: <\/strong>If you take off the table cuts to Medicare, Social Security, veterans and defense spending, and if you\u2019re also not going to raise taxes to bring in more revenue, you\u2019d need to cut about 85% of the rest of the budget in order to make it balance, according to a recent analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.<\/p>\n State of play: <\/strong>Conservatives have said they secured a commitment from House Speaker Kevin McCarthyto create a budget that balances over the next decade, an exercise that would likely precede a vote on the debt limit.<\/p>\n \u201cThis is shaping up to be a tough vote<\/strong> to balance in 10 years,\u201d said a former House GOP leadership aide. \u201cWhere are the cuts going to be? Is it going to be on defense, entitlements or both? Both could cause problems.\u201d<\/p>\n The intrigue: <\/strong>The House could always fake it. Budget resolutions are just frameworks; they don't become law. So the House GOP could pass a non-binding budget that includes steep cuts, then pursue only modest reductions when it\u2019s time to actually set federal spending levels and negotiate over the debt ceiling.<\/p>\n \u201cYou\u2019ve got to protect <\/strong>Medicare and Social Security. And the path the Democrats are going, they are going to go bankrupt,\u201d McCarthy recently told reporters, per the Washington Post. <\/p>\n\n
\n
\n
\n