Lockdown roadmap could be delayed as Britain faces fresh Covid surge by easing restrictions, warns Oxford prof

BORIS Johnson's roadmap out of lockdown could be delayed – because the UK faces a fresh Covid surge as restrictions ease, an Oxford academic has warned.

Dr Peter Drobac, a former assistant professor at Harvard Medical School, warned there will be a spike in cases as Brits enjoy their new-found freedoms.

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And he said that unless we take it slow and steady, Britain could face a similar future to Chile – which has just gone back into a strict lockdown, despite one of the world's best vaccination programmes.

It comes as:

  • The Moderna vaccine will be rolled out from today in England
  • People in Germany could face a lockdown until mid-June amid the EU's bungled jabs roll-out
  • Covid deaths halve in a week, with 13 fatalities recorded yesterday
  • Surge testing begins in parts of London after 44 cases of the South African strain are found
  • All adults over the age of 50 have been offered the vaccine

Speaking on Sky News, Dr Drobac called the South American country a "real Covid vaccination success story".

"Some 40 per cent of people have received one dose, and 25 per cent have received two doses – and at the same time, they've got a surge that is the worst they've experienced throughout the pandemic," he said.

And he said the surge can be attributed to Chileans 'letting down their guard'.

"Social distancing restrictions were relaxed, summer holidays were allowed to happen, border restrictions were eased," he said.

"What happened was infections began to rise well before any protective effect happened, and they're paying the price."

Dr Drobac said it's a warning that vaccinations won't be enough to stop cases rising in the future.

"Vaccinations are so important, but they alone won't be enough," he said.

"Here in the UK we still face a risk of another surge if we're not very careful about how we open up."



And he said Brits "have to be very careful".

"The reality is that for vaccinations to tamp down the pandemic depends on how many cases you have," he said.

"The vaccination is more effective at protecting us when case rates are very low, as they are now, versus when they're very high."

Just three weeks ago, Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty said there will "definitely" be another surge in the summer.

And Dr Drobac said: "The question is, how big a surge and when will it happen?

"As we continue to open up, that will happen.

"Our vaccination campaign has really slowed down quite significantly because of a shortage in supply, so really difficult decisions need to be made about whether the slowing rate means we need to think about the timeline for reopening."

Officials say there are enough vaccines for every adult in the UK to get a dose.

He spoke hours after tens of thousands of Brits joined pals at the pub for the first time since January.

Punters danced in the streets after closing time after facing two-hour queues for a pint at Spoons.

Many of those who took the chance to get merry could be seen hugging each other and standing close together during the course of the evening.


And this morning, Professor Adam Finn of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), said he would "certainly avoid contact with other people" if he went to a beer garden.

"I think the risks of transmission outside are relatively low, but not if you start coming into close contact with people," he told BBC Breakfast.

"If you happen to have the virus, and the virus is still circulating, then infections will occur.

"People need to see this in relative terms. It's not like it's over and we can all go back to normal, because otherwise there will be risks."  

However, he said there's much to be positive about.

'BRITS MUST ADJUST TO A NEW NORMAL'

"We're halfway up the hill if you like," he said.

"We can look back and be pleased with what we've achieved, but we need to look forward to get to the summit, and really finish this off."

And Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers, said that, despite the success of the UK vaccine rollout, people must adjust to a "new normal".

"I know I might sound a bit like a prophet of doom the day after we've started enabling people to go back to the pub garden, but the reality is there are really good reasons why we need to be cautious here," he told Sky News.

"We need to be really careful about assuming we're on a one-way, inexorable, inevitable track to it all being fantastic and we can go back to normal, because actually we'll need a new normal."

The PM urged Brits to "behave responsibily" as restrictions eased yesterday.

He said: "I'm sure it will be a huge relief for those business owners who have been closed for so long, and for everyone else it's a chance to get back to doing some of the things we love and have missed.

"I urge everyone to continue to behave responsibly and remember 'hands, face, space and fresh air' to suppress Covid as we push on with our vaccination programme."

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