Brexit debacle 'was a mess' says Mary Lou McDonald
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Ray Bassett said north of the border, the popularity of the nationalist party is likely to result in Michelle O’Neill becoming Northern Ireland’s First Minister after May’s Assembly elections. He further believes current Taoiseach Micheal Martin will step down as Fianna Fail leader before the next election – and is likely to be replaced by somebody with more hardline views on the subject of Irish unity.
Mr Bassett, Ireland’s former ambassador to Canada, Jamaica and the Bahamas, was commenting on a Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll, published on Sunday.
The survey, with a sample size of 1,369, indicated that, once “don’t knows” were excluded, Sinn Fein, led by Mary Lou McDonald, was on 33 percent.
Fine Gael, led by former Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, lagged behind on 23 percent, with Fianna Fail on 19 percent.
Nevertheless, the poll also found the current three-way coalition between Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and the Greens (preferred by 38 percent of those asked) to be more popular than one led by Sinn Fein (34 percent).
The Good Friday Agreement, signed in 1998, includes provision for a border poll in Northern Ireland, with the Northern Ireland secretary committed to calling one if there is a majority in favour of unification – which there currently is not.
Mr Bassett, who advocates Ireland following the UK’s example with a so-called Irexit, told Express.co.uk: “Should Sinn Fein become the predominant party in either Belfast or Dublin, or even more so with both administrations, then the issue of a border poll will become a more active matter.
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“It is clear from a large number of polls over the last 18 months that Sinn Fein is the most supported party, at the moment, in both the Republic and in Northern Ireland.”
Ms O’Neill is currently Northern Ireland’s deputy First Minister and, as the party’s vice-president, is also Ms McDonald’s second in command.
Referring to Sinn Fein’s prospects, Mr Bassett said: “The implications of their rise are more immediate in Northern Ireland where the Assembly elections are due in May of this year and Sinn Fein is very much in pole position to emerge as the leading party.
“That would automatically mean that Sinn Fein would provide the North’s next First Minister, provided of course that the political institutions in Belfast were still operating.”
In the Republic, there is not scheduled to be a general election for another three years, with all three coalition partners “very hesitant” about an early poll, Mr Bassett pointed out.
He added: “It is calculated that they will hold on as long as possible.
“Therefore, the Sinn Fein lead in the polls probably does not have immediate implications.
“Even if the good polling figures hold up for Sinn Fein and they emerge as the leading party after the next general election in the Republic, it is not inevitable that the party will head up the next Government.
“They may find difficulty in securing the numbers necessary to form a stable Government.
“Under a proportional representation system, it is nearly impossible for one party to secure an overall majority.”
Without an obvious coalition partner, Sinn Fein would likely be forced to rely on what Mr Bassett called “a rag bag of left wing independents”, which he described as “a formula for instability”.
As such, he pinpointed Fianna Fail as key to their hopes.
Mr Bassett explained: “I presume they are hoping for a change in leadership in Fianna Fail, whose party membership, though not its current leadership, would be sympathetic to Sinn Fein.
“Taoiseach Michael Martin is atypical of his party’s traditions and has taken a very soft line on the issue of national reunification.
“Any new leader of Fianna Fail would be much more nationalist minded. Martin is expected to step down before the next election.”
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