Hindsight is a very effective strategist, but there is one moment police may look back upon as the lost opportunity to nip the anti-mandate protests at Parliament in the bud.
That was on the afternoon of the first day the protesters arrived – Tuesday nearly two weeks ago.
The protest was much, much smaller then, and three or four tents were put up that afternoon.
Parliament asked police to provide protection while Parliament’s security went in to remove them.
The police ruled it out for reasons that remain unclear.
Nothing happened and by the next day more tents were up. More tents have been set up every day since. By Friday, the Beehive was nearly surrounded,
Police have deliberately done precious little to move the protesters, stop them entering Parliament’s grounds, or stop them setting up on neighbouring properties.
That is presumably because to do so would risk riots down Lambton Quay, which would be even harder to control.
So the protesters are happy, and more and more tents have gone up every day, over to neighbouring properties and around the side of the Beehive. There are now security checkpoints – manned by the protesters, not police – at every entry point.
Media have been told to register before they come into the grounds and get a protest liaison escort. They effectively control the grounds and have almost surrounded them.
The various efforts of the police, the Speaker and politicians to get the protesters to move have ranged from the absurd and laughable to arrests and threats.
There have been polite requests, attempts to use reason, bad music, and offers of free parking.
The Prime Minister tried the confusion approach, by telling the protesters “it is not a protest”.
There has been the issuing of statements. The first was from the united political parties of Parliament. It said no politician would meet the protesters unless the roads were cleared and protesters stopped being mean to people. It did not go so far as to commit to a meeting if that did happen.
The Wellington MPs, local councillors, Vic Uni and unions issued their statements. Someone set up a petition calling on the protesters to go home.
The protesters responded by suggesting these statements and petitions could be used as toilet paper.
All the tactics have had the same impact, which is none at all.
The poor old police in particular have been made to look like laughing stocks. They appear to have severely underestimated the size and intent of the protest group, despite the social media that prefaced it.
There have been moments that have begged to be lampooned. High among them was Police Commissioner Andrew Coster’s so-called towing crackdown.
Coster did not front publicly until Tuesday – a week after the protesters arrived. He said the protest was now “untenable” and put protesters on notice that if they did not move their cars, the towing would begin the next day. He also admitted they could not find towies to do the job, and the Army didn’t have the right equipment.
The next day the only car that was actually towed was a police car, which had a flat tyre.
The day after that, Assistant Commissioner Richard Chambers reported “progress.” “Progress” consisted of about 12 people voluntarily moving their cars – which were promptly replaced by other cars, in even greater numbers.
After managing to find a few willing towies, Coster announced all towing plans had now been abandoned, because the risk of a violent response from protesters was too great.
The protest he had described as “untenable” a few days earlier was now to be dealt with via a “traffic management plan” – asking people to leave a lane clear and to park at the stadium.
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Government ministers are quietly furious about the police response, but can’t say so out loud: The independence of the Police cannot be seen to be compromised.
National Party leader Christopher Luxon has so far held the line with the Prime Minister in refusing to engage with the protest lines or to criticise the police response.
But that political unanimity over that response is now starting to crack as the Parliament protests put to the test the different stands on law and order.
National MP Mark Mitchell’s response after Coster unveiled the “traffic management plan” was to say Coster’s credibility was severely damaged after the towing bluff, and that Labour’s chickens were now coming home to roost after encouraging such a policing approach.
National’s Simon Bridges had long ago made it clear what he thought of Coster’s approach to policing, saying he was a “wokester” who was too soft on serious criminals.
Neither those MPs nor Coster won’t have missed that in Canada, Ottawa’s police commissioner has just resigned over criticism he did not do enough to stop the convoy protests there.
Canada’s PM, Justin Trudeau, has called a state of emergency to try to resolve the protests there.
In New Zealand, we are not quite at that point. That is mainly because the protesters themselves have not taken things to the same degree. They have clogged up the Parliament end of Wellington, but not critical roads and the protest has not seen serious violence.
The protesters have not made serious attempts to storm Parliament, beyond a brief flurry at the very start. Coster’s “de-escalation” strategy appears to be police-speak for hoping like hell the protesters stay that way.
Labour – who appointed Coster for the very approach to policing he is now using – may well be thinking Coster has taken his policing by consent ethos a little too literally now.
The protesters do not consent, and every day more and more of them do not consent and Wellington sits and waits.
But the protest has long gone past the point at which police could simply wade into it and break it up. Coster has set out why: Moving in with force at this point would be very ugly indeed.
Consent – the consent of the protesters rather than the wider public – is pretty much the only option left.
All of this has put PM Jacinda Ardern into a tricky situation. Ardern will not want to set a precedent by meeting with protesters. Nor will she want the protests to get violent.
If anything, it risks delaying any decisions or announcements on the future of the mandates. If that comes any time soon, it would look as if Ardern was caving into the protesters, rather than working on the timeframe she wanted to.
But it is increasingly difficult for her to keep up her dismissal of the concerns of the people at the protests are a tiny minority, or her depiction of them as extremists, conspiracy theorists and crazy anti-vaxxers.
Other political leaders are also in a tricky situation. None can afford to be associated with the messages and actions of the protesters outside, but the temptation to wade into the handling of the protest and the issues it raises is becoming increasingly irresistible.
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