Ukraine: Putin may 'settle for what he's got' says Kellogg
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It’s no secret that President Putin’s plans in Ukraine have gone awry – according to western intelligence, the Russian leader believed Ukraine would fall within days of his troops setting foot in the country. But now US officials believe Russia may be planning a new path to secure its key territorial objectives.
It has been widely interpreted that President Putin thought seizing Kyiv would be easy, and he’d quickly replace Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky with a pro-Russian puppet leader.
But after weeks of gruelling combat and severe losses on Moscow’s side, the Kremlin has been forced to rethink its strategy for seizing the wartorn country.
Ukraine has had a string of military successes, despite Russia’s indiscriminate attacks on Ukrainian civilians.
Russia’s army is overall succeeding in the southern city of Mariupol – despite intense opposition – but the Kremlin’s goal of taking the capital Kyiv has stalled significantly.
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What could Putin be planning next?
President Putin’s next steps could actually be less bloody than his current method of seizing Ukraine.
President Putin is reportedly planning to compel President Zelensky to accept Russian claims to Ukraine’s southern and eastern territories.
Russia seized both Crimea and regions of Donbas, in the east, in 2014.
According to US officials, the Kremlin seeks to secure a “land bridge” between western Russia and the Crimean Peninsula, and to expand Russian control in the Donbas region.
Russia would also continue its aggression across wider Ukraine, in particular the major cities of Lviv and the capital Kyiv.
It believed President Putin would place his hopes on this convincing Kyiv to abandon its burgeoning ties with the EU and NATO and agree to a neutral status, as well as string of other demands.
Such an agreement is unlikely, however, with President Zelensky standing firm on keeping Russia out of his country.
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Alexander Rodnyansky, a presidential adviser to Mr Zelensky, said: “Anything that relates to our sovereignty on territory, that’s of course not going to go anywhere.”
He said separately: “It seems like over the last week or so, their strategy has been adapted to cut down their losses.
“So almost a week ago, they already had, like, around 13,000 dead by our estimates.
“In just the week after that, they have about 14,000 deaths.
“The pace of their losses has diminished, and that speaks to certain changes in their strategy, perhaps, you know, certain voluntary and involuntary changes in their strategy.
“They’ve been probably trying to become a bit more careful, actually, to avoid further losses.”
Since the start of the war, peace negotiating teams from Russia and Ukraine have met a handful of times in Belarus, but little progress has been made.
Russia has continued its bombardment of key cities, with Mariupol in the south suffering extreme damage and civilian casualties over the weekend.
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