Suggesting U.S. economic growth is likely to slow further in the near-term, the Conference Board released a report on Thursday showing its index of leading economic indicators decreased for the fourth straight month in June.
The Conference Board said its leading economic index slumped by 0.8 percent in June after falling by a revised 0.6 percent in May.
Economists had expected the leading economic index to decline by 0.5 percent compared to the 0.4 percent drop originally reported for the previous month.
With the continued decrease, the leading economic index tumbled by 1.8 percent in the first half of 2022 following a 3.3 percent spike in the second half of 2021.
“Consumer pessimism about future business conditions, moderating labor market conditions, falling stock prices, and weaker manufacturing new orders drove the LEI’s decline in June,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board.
Meanwhile, the report showed the coincident economic index edged up by 0.2 percent in June, matching the uptick seen in May.
The Conference Board said the lagging economic index also advanced by 0.8 percent for the second consecutive month.
“Amid high inflation and rapidly tightening monetary policy, The Conference Board expects economic growth will continue to cool throughout 2022,” said Ozyildirim.
“A U.S. recession around the end of this year and early next is now likely,” he added. “Accordingly, we’ve downgraded our forecast of 2022 annual Real GDP growth to 1.7 percent year-over-year (from 2.3 percent), while 2023 growth was downgraded to 0.5 percent YOY (from 1.8 percent).”
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