Germany Cuts 2021 Growth Forecast as Lockdown Extension Weighs

Germany trimmed its prediction for economic growth this year to 3% due to an extension of coronavirus lockdown restrictions that’s expected to weigh on activity in the first quarter.

The government cut its forecast of 4.4% made at the end of October, according to a person familiar with its annual economic report to be published next week. Germany entered a partial shutdown — including the closing of non-essential stores — at the start of November and it has since been tightened and extended until at least mid-February.

Economy Minister Peter Altmaier is due to present the latest report at a news conference on Wednesday. Europe’s biggest economy has not suffered as much as some countries from the effects of the coronavirus crisis, in part thanks to generous government support.

Growth of 3% next year — which is in line with the Bundesbank’sprediction — would follow a contraction of 5% in 2020, and most forecasts indicate that the economy will take until 2022 to recover the ground lost because of the pandemic.

188,952 in U.S.Most new cases today 56,​740,​891 Vaccine doses administered in 52 countries

+15% Change in MSCI World Index of global stocks since Wuhan lockdown, Jan. 23

-0.​6216 Change in U.S. treasury bond yield since Wuhan lockdown, Jan. 23

The International Monetary Fund said this week that Chancellor Angela Merkel’s administration should consider additional aid for companies and maintain support for the labor market to avoid more permanent scars. IMF staff predicted a “choppy” and unevenly distributed rebound that will only strengthen once Covid-19 vaccines have been widely distributed.

Investors expressed confidence in Germany’s recovery on Tuesday, with a gauge measuring expectations for the next six months rising to the highest since September -- before a second wave of infections triggered the new curbs.

The economy probably avoided a contraction in the fourth quarter, thanks in part to a strong manufacturing sector that isn’t as directly affected by restrictions that have hit restaurants and the travel sector.

However, recent indicators suggest it’s struggling to keep up momentum. Private-sector activityeffectively stagnated in January, as manufacturing growth and rising goods exports were canceled out by a slump in services.

Germany’s updated forecast was reported earlier Friday by Der Spiegel magazine. A spokeswoman for the Economy Ministry declined to comment.

Read more:
Merkel Tightens Curbs as Deaths Rise Most Since Pandemic Began
Is It Enough? Tracking Major Economies’ Stimulus Measures
Germany Targets Pandemic Recovery Without Massive Stimulus Push

— With assistance by Carolynn Look, and Raymond Colitt

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