Conspiracy theories swirl in China that monkeypox was deliberately leaked by the UNITED STATES – following widespread misinformation over Covid-19
- Chinese social media users have latched on to an NGO report which modeled a fictional scenario for a monkeypox outbreak as proof the US spread the virus
- Nuclear Threat Initiative runs through scenarios of how countries can prepare for nuclear fallouts, chemical weapons, cyber attacks and biological outbreaks
- In the hypothetical scenario published in November 2021, a modified strain of monkeypox results in more than three billion cases and 270million fatalities
Chinese social media users are saying the US could be the source of the rise in monkeypox cases, which have now spread to at least a dozen countries.
A hashtag on the US reporting two cases of monkeypox has attracted more than 51 million views on Weibo as of Monday.
The infectious disease became a tending topic on the platform after cases were found in the UK, Spain and Australia.
Chinese state media has accused the United States of intentionally spreading Covid-19, which originated in China, but has so far held back from taking the same approach with monkeypox.
Chinese social media users have latched on to an NGO report which modeled a fictional scenario for a monkeypox outbreak as proof the US spread the virus deliberately
The social media speculation is centered around a 2021 report on biosecurity preparedness planning by a US non-government organisation, known as the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI).
The report describes a hypothetical scenario for an outbreak of monkeypox which has been taken out of context by Chinese social media users to suggest the US knew of the pandemic beforehand.
The NTI was created by Ted Turner, an American philanthropist who also used his wealth to create the United Nations Foundation, along with democrat politician Sam Nunn.
The organisation models responses to weapons of mass destruction, focusing on nuclear, cyber, biological, radiological and chemical attacks.
Weibo influencer Shu Chang, who has 6.41 million followers, said the report constituted ‘a plan by the US to leak bioengineered monkeypox virus’.
Many Weibo users seemed to agree with her, with more than 7,500 users liking the post, according to Bloomberg.
Monkeypox cases are pictured in the US as of 5/23/2022. As of Friday there were 80 confirmed monkeypox cases worldwide, including at least two in the United States
After the Covid outbreak, the NTI partnered with the Munich Security Conference (MSC) to conduct a tabletop exercise aimed at reducing biological threats.
The example they chose for the exercise was ‘an unusual strain of monkeypox virus’.
In the exercise, the two groups modelled the outbreak of the monkeypox strain in a fictional country called ‘Brinia’ which eventually spreads globally, measured over 18 months.
In the scenario, the initial outbreak was caused ‘by a terrorist attack using a pathogen engineered in a laboratory with inadequate biosafety and biosecurity provisions and weak oversight.’
By the end of the exercise, the fictional pandemic resulted in more than three billion cases and 270million fatalities worldwide.
The hypothetical scenario occurs on June 5, 2022, starting with an outbreak in Brinia after a terrorist group from neighbouring country ‘Arnica’, which is also fictional, develops the virus illicitly.
The independent Arnican terrorist group — known as the SPA — had worked with sympathetic laboratory scientists to engineer a highly contagious and deadly pathogen.
Around 21 cases of monkeypox have been confirmed in the UK, with Boris Johnson saying he is ‘keeping an eye’ on the virus but insists it is not a ‘repeat of Covid’
The terrorists disperse the virus at a crowded train stations in Brinia, timing the attack to take place during a national holiday, allowing the virus to spread further.
Authorities report 1,421 cases and four fatalities in the fictional country, which has a population of 250 million in the scenario.
‘Because monkeypox is not naturally found in Brinia, local and international experts consider this outbreak to be unusual,’ wrote the NTI.
‘The Brinian government welcomes international outbreak investigations and requests medical support from the WHO.’
As the virus progresses, it spreads to another fictional country: the ‘Republic of Dranma’.
Dranma adopts heavy restrictions to slow the spread of the virus, shutting down mass gatherings, imposing social-distancing measures, and implementing mask mandates – akin to the strict lockdowns imposed by some nations during the Covid-19 outbreaks.
The map shows confirmed cases of monkeypox, with 80 cases confirmed so far. The World Health Organisation said on Monday it has no evidence that the monkeypox virus has mutated
Another fictional country, called ‘Cardus’, keeps its economy open and downplays the virus as well as its potential impacts, and as a result experiences much worse mortality rates.
In the hypothetical version, researchers soon learn that the monkeypox strain is resistant to existing vaccines, including the smallpox vaccine – whereas scientists observing the actual spread of the virus today believe the smallpox vaccine will be effective.
The hypothetical version used in the report is also much more contagious than the wild strain of monkeypox, with a basic reproductive number of three used to model for the ‘modified strain’ compared to the 2.13 rate which is actually observed in the wild.
The strain had also been modified in the NTI’s scenario, whereas the World Health Organisation said on Monday it has no evidence that the monkeypox virus has mutated.
As of Friday there were 80 confirmed monkeypox cases worldwide, including at least two in the United States.
NTI could not be reached with a request to comment before press time.
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