Save articles for later
Add articles to your saved list and come back to them any time.
For as long as I can remember, Melburnians have been engrossed in the contest of whether our city’s population is bigger than Sydney’s. This topic burst back into the limelight last week when The Age reported “Melbourne is now the largest city, kind of”.
While our focus has been on population size, we have overlooked an important variable known as the “the mo”. This does not relate to a hairy upper lip. Rather it refers to momentum. And I am here to tell you, Victoria’s city of Geelong has “the mo”.
Painted bollards along the waterfront at Geelong.Credit: Tourism Greater Geelong & The Bellarine
Once dubbed “Sleepy Hollow” due to its dwindling population, Geelong is now booming, sharing the equal fastest growth rate with Queensland’s Sunshine Coast, among Australia’s largest cities in recent years. Unbeknown to many, another reordering of our major city hierarchy is about to occur with the population of Geelong on track to exceed that of Wollongong by mid-2025.
When ranking our major cities by population size, hierarchy does not change often or quickly. Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Gold Coast, Newcastle and Canberra all have maintained their position within the top eight spots for the past 22 years.
Beyond that, Queensland’s Sunshine Coast has moved from 11th to ninth after overtaking Wollongong for 10th spot in 2005 and the NSW Central Coast for ninth in 2014.
In 2001, the Wollongong urban area, extending from Helensburgh in the north to Kiama in the south, contained 260,655 people. At the same time, Geelong’s urban area, covering the suburbs from Lara to Torquay, recorded 60,923 fewer residents with a total population of 199,732.
The latest ABS data regarding the estimated residential population of Australia to June 2022 reveals that this gap has narrowed to 14,268 people with Wollongong recording a population of 309,345 and Geelong 295,077.
Geelong’s population may soon exceed that of Wollongong.Credit: Visit Victoria
These contemporary figures reflect Geelong’s superior annual average growth rate of 1.9 per cent from 2001 to 2022, or 2.5 per cent since 2016, compared to Wollongong’s average of 0.8 per cent over the same time frames. If these growth rates endure, Geelong’s population will soon exceed that of Wollongong, and Geelong will take its place as the 11th largest significant urban area in Australia in 2025.
The history of Wollongong and Geelong share similar themes and broadly reflect the evolution of Australia’s economy. Both herald from an agricultural past with wool and dairy industries acting as the catalyst for early growth. Extractive industries and manufacturing have also played a significant role, courtesy of BHP in Wollongong and Ford and Shell in Geelong.
In the latter part of the 20th century, both cities have managed to attract successful tertiary institutions. Today, Deakin and Wollongong University are ranked in Australia’s top 20, educating thousands of domestic and international students each year. The proximity to Australia’s coastline has also benefited both cities in the form of tourism and sea-changers in search of a better lifestyle.
The Foo Fighters perform at GMHBA Stadium in Geelong.Credit: Paul Rovere
It is important to note that Geelong’s population growth has not come at the expense of Wollongong’s. Nor is this a story of Wollongong’s demise. The recent divergence in the growth rate of these cities comes down to Geelong’s contemporary “mo”, which has in part been enabled by the concerted effort of successive state and federal governments to decentralise the public sector.
Geelong represents a successful model of government decentralisation with the establishment of the TAC, Australian Bureau of Statistics, WorkSafe, National Disability Insurance Agency, and Ports Victoria in Geelong over the past two decades, injecting thousands of secure, well-paying jobs into the region.
While government employment alone cannot dictate the success of a town, these jobs have added to the growth of a diversified labour force in Geelong, which is the pre-condition of any thriving urban agglomeration. This diversification has had compounding benefits for Geelong, attracting other firms of all sizes, spurring innovation, and increasing the demand for and delivery of greater urban amenity in areas such as culture and entertainment.
Think KPMG Geelong, Deakin University partnering with Ford to research next-generation vehicles, and a crowd of 20,000 rocking along to The Killers at Mt Duneed, to name a few. With the ability to buy a three-bedroom house for $700,000 while being in proximity to your job and some of Australia’s best beaches, it is no surprise that people are voting with their feet and heading to Geelong.
Many Victorians choose not to support the Geelong Cats, but all Victorians should be cheering on urban Geelong as it overtakes Wollongong’s population. Nevertheless, with speculation that Port Kembla is the most likely location to house Australia’s multibillion-dollar nuclear submarine fleet, Wollongong will fight back and Geelong in 11th place nationally will need to be looking over its shoulder.
Toby Wooldridge is a senior analyst at demographics consulting firm Deep End Services and a sessional tutor in Urban Planning at the University of Melbourne.
The Opinion newsletter is a weekly wrap of views that will challenge, champion and inform your own. Sign up here.
Most Viewed in National
From our partners
Source: Read Full Article