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Vladimir Putin could see his dwindling list of allies disappear with Ukraine aiming for a spot in NATO.
Members of the alliance met in Vilnius this week to officially welcome Sweden and Finland and the organization reiterated its commitment to welcoming Kyiv to the table as soon as further democratic reforms are rolled out.
Geopolitical expert Irina Tsukerman told Daily Express US Ukraine’s entry into NATO would deliver a final blow to Putin’s international alliances as no partner would be willing to risk access to Western markets to support Russia.
And Tsukerman argued that despite the fiery rhetoric the Russian leader has been pushing since the start of the conflict, Moscow is not prepared to take on NATO and would likely push for a deal in the event of Ukraine joining the alliance.
She said: “Contrary to its rhetoric, Russia is not ready to go to war with all of NATO, even with its ally Belarus in tow.
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“Moreover, while there’s been some concern about Russia’s nuclear threats, joint coordination could focus intelligence efforts on disrupting Russia’s access to its arsenal and preventing these threats from ever becoming viable.
“There could also be an indirect effect of sending a message to non-Western countries that have strengthened their relations with Russia.
“If all of NATO were to publicly admit to prioritizing Ukraine in a unified effort and take a position of Russia being an existential threat to their own security requiring intervention, these countries could be forced to make a choice of moving away from Russia to preserve access to Western financial systems, defense relations, and more.”
She also dispelled fears Ukraine’s membership would automatically result in a nuclear conflict with Moscow under Article V.
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The NATO Treaty article dictates member countries should intervene to support fellow members if attacked by a third party but Tsukerman argued the treaty did not clarify what type of military support would be required.
She continued: “The worst possible case scenario is the need to invoke Article V which would force all of NATO to come to Ukraine’s collective defense.
“Ironically, however, that is not really such a bad outcome because the mere threat of that happening could be enough to force Russia to flee and, second, there is no clear definition of what that assistance should look like.
“So these members could coordinate in a way to minimize risk and maximize strategic advantage, devastating Russian positions without incurring much of a response.”
Tsukerman added: “The real risk in this scenario is conventional rather than nuclear – which is that Russia could look to expand the conflict by dragging in assorted mercenaries, terrorist groups, and state actors such as Iran who are already engaging in violations of European national sovereignty through attempted attacks and assassinations.
“That is far more likely to happen than anything else, but could also potentially happen even if Ukraine is never admitted to NATO.
“Ultimately, Europe can ill afford to allow an authoritarian illiberal regime to dictate the terms of its own security.”
President Biden said on Wednesday the US and allied commitment to Ukraine “will not weaken” as he highlighted NATO support for Kyiv more than 500 days after Russia’s invasion.
Speaking at the conclusion of the alliance’s annual summit, Biden told a crowd of cheering thousands, “our unity will not falter — I promise you.”
Biden said the response to the Ukraine crisis is a model for the US and its allies for how to respond to other global challenges, from climate change to China, saying their position is stronger when they “build the broadest and deepest coalition”.
He praised Ukraine’s defenders and their Western backers who have sent billions in weapons and economic assistance to support the country’s fight against Russian forces.
“We will not waver,” Biden said. “I mean that. Our commitment to Ukraine will not weaken. We will stand for freedom today, tomorrow and for as long as it takes.”
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