Rishi Sunak would have loved to spend today talking about the first of his five targets finally being hit, with inflation falling below half where it was when he took over last year.
However, the Prime Minister has been forced by the Supreme Court to focus on a different target which remains painfully out of reach – namely his promise to stop the boats.
People will not stop crossing the Channel in small boats until there is an effective deterrent in place, which is where the Rwanda scheme was meant to come in. But the grounding of the first flights due to legal action, backed up now by judges in every court of the land, means the scheme is as good as dead in its current form.
Unsurprisingly, Sunak has not been able to let this stand given that he promised to do “whatever it takes” to make the scheme work. “As Prime Minister, that is what I will deliver,” he pledged during last year’s leadership contest.
Since then, Sunak has doubled down in his determination. He has repeatedly mocked Sir Keir Starmer in the House of Commons for threatening the scrap the Rwanda scheme, branding the Labour leader “just another lefty lawyer standing in our way”.
Throughout his premiership, Sunak has been clear that he shared Suella Braverman’s yearning to get the Rwanda scheme up and running. Last December, he told MPs that once the legal dramas were over, “we will restart the first flights to Rwanda, so that those who are here illegally and cannot be returned to their home country can build a new life there”.
But now, he stands accused by his former Home Secretary of having wasted the last year and being back to square one.
The latest noises from Sunak’s cabinet suggest they want to play down the importance of the Rwanda scheme.
Home Secretary James Cleverly suggested in his response to the Supreme Court that the policy was “just one part of a vehicle of measures to stop the boats and tackle illegal immigration”.
Curiously, he referred to the scheme as a “concept” – which some will fear means they will be left waiting to see it become a reality.
Later in the Commons, he dismissed the idea pushed by some Tory backbenchers of unravelling the United Kingdom from the European Court of Human Rights.
However, just before the Supreme Court ruling, his deputy Rob Jenrick warned that the scheme needed to proceed “no ifs, no buts”. “We must ensure the Rwanda policy succeeds before the next general election,” he added.
It is easy to see why. Illegal immigration is one of the most important issues to the British people, and polls show they fear Sunak is failing to get a grip on it.
The Prime Minister will have his work cut out proving his doubters wrong. Ministers have talked up a range of options, from changing domestic law to negotiating a fresh treaty with Rwanda and providing them with more aid to ease concerns about asylum seekers being sent there.
All of this will take time, during which the boats will keep coming. The public’s patience will wear thin, while Tory MPs and Brexiteers such as Nigel Farage continue to push for change.
Sunak styles himself as a Prime Minister who gets things done. If he can revive the Rwanda scheme in a way which delivers the much-promised deterrent against illegal immigration, he will deserve the widespread plaudits.
If not, it risks shattering his reputation for competence by suggesting he prefers talking tough to tough decisions.
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