Huge risk West needs to take to help Ukraine win war but is ‘full of dangers’

Ukraine has been able to deal significant damage to the Russian Black Sea Fleet despite possessing only a very modest naval force.

The success on the occupied Crimean peninsula and in the Black Sea was achieved over the past months through the use of unmanned drones and long-range missiles.

Over the past 22 months of war, Western allies have provided billions worth of military aid to Ukraine to support its war effort.

While tanks, missiles and defence systems have been sent to Ukraine over the months – and F-16 fighter jets have been pledged – no warship has been delivered.

Foreign policy expert Dr Alan Mendoza acknowledged that providing ships to the Ukrainian Navy could help Kyiv deal even more damage to the Russian fleet and help reconquer Crimea – occupied and then annexed by Russia in 2014.

READ MORE: Watch dramatic moment Ukraine annihilates Russian missile system

But beefing up the Ukrainian Navy would be much more difficult than it is supplying other weapons and assistance to the war-torn country, he noted.

The founder of the Henry Jackson Society think tank told Express.co.uk: “To get the ships to Ukraine they’re going to have to come through the Black Sea, they’re going to have to be in international waters, and what’s to stop the Russians from attempting to interdict them along the way?

“I think there are many more dangers in terms of supplying ships to Ukraine than there are for any other form of equipment.”

Providing warships to Ukraine as the war continues to rage, he added, is “an unlikely option” given the difficulties attached to it.

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But the West should continue to help Ukraine in its efforts to destabilise the Black Sea Fleet, Dr Mendoza added.

One way to do so would be to “give the Ukrainians increased capabilities to sink Russian ships, to knock out the Black Sea Fleet that way – and they have had obviously significant successes over time in doing that.

“And then, of course, giving them sufficient capabilities in terms of landing craft perhaps, and small boats that enable them to get over onto Crimea.”

In recent months, Ukrainian troops are known to have carried out incursions on the occupied peninsula.

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But one of the greatest successes achieved by Ukraine has been to hammer the Russian fleet in the Black Sea so hard Moscow had to shift much of it away from Crimea in October.

Among the carefully planned attacks launched by Ukraine against the fleet and the Russian navy’s infrastructure were the destruction of landing commandos on the occupied peninsula, the damaging of warships and the pounding of the Black Sea Fleet’s headquarters in Sevastopol.

The Ukrainian naval force was dealt a heavy blow during the Crimean crisis in 2014, as much of its bases, equipment and personnel were stationed on the peninsula. In the early weeks of the Russian invasion in 2022, Ukraine reportedly lost more ships, including the Donbas commando ship.

While building back a navy for Ukraine is going to be difficult for the time being, another expert noted it will be an essential effort after the war against Russia ends, particularly to fulfil Kyiv’s desire to access NATO.

Answering a question by Express.co.uk during a briefing held by the Center for European Policy Analysis, retired US Lieutenant General Stephen Twitty said: “When you start looking at the long-term economic viability of Ukraine, they will absolutely need a thriving Navy to be able to control sea lanes in the Black Sea that they need to protect their shorelines, to protect their grain shipping. All that needs to be taken into account, as we look to rebuild Ukraine.”

The former Deputy Commander of United States European Command added: “And as we look to rebuild Ukraine and modernise their military, and as you look at a potential invite into NATO, what would definitely be first and foremost is to bring them up to NATO standards across not just the Navy but all their military capabilities to ensure that they can stand up as an independent country but also support NATO.”

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