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The crisis between Russia and Ukraine could turn into a “real war”, an expert has warned.
And a “strong reaction” from world leaders to the conflict will only make it worse, it is claimed.
Tensions between the two countries have been heightened in recent weeks amid fears it could explode into warfare.
Russia amassed an estimated 100,000 troops close to the border, although a number of units were ordered back to their bases on Thursday.
The Kremlin’s defence minister Sergei Shoigu claimed they had shown their ability “to provide a credible defence” for Russia.
Victor Andrusiv, the executive director of the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, said Moscow’s “aggressive behaviour” was being driven by a water crisis in Crimea and US President Joe Biden’s prospective strategy for Russia.
The goal may be to bring Biden to take a more peaceful approach, he told the Kennan Institute at the Wilson Center.
Russia's President Vladimir Putin believes the US is not prepared”for a new conflict in Ukraine, he said.
But he added: “All that said, the Russians may also be considering a military invasion into Ukraine.
“The show of force on Ukraine’s border could turn into a real war.”
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Russia developing high-tech nuclear and laser weapons in latest war threat, Putin warns
A strong US or EU response – such as sanctions or military support to Ukraine – might “be viewed as provocation leading to further escalation”, he claimed.
Oksana Antonenko, a global fellow and director of the consultancy Control Risks, said the crisis was "dangerous” as its objectives are “more ambiguous than ever before”.
And Brigadier General Peter Zwack, a global fellow at the Kennan Institute, said a worst case scenario could have seen US and NATO forces drawn into a "dangerous escalatory fight that neither side wants”.
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He told the institute it could rapidly spread across Russia’s huge periphery, including the Arctic.
Fighting has raged along the 1,500 miles-long East Ukraine-Russia border since 2014.
Around 14,000 people are estimated to have been killed so far.
Earlier this month, a source said UK senior commanders and Whitehall officials were on "high alert" and monitoring the situation with “concern”.
The situation was further inflamed after Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov warned growing tension could be the "beginning of the end" for Ukraine.
He said Russia would follow up Ukrainian aggression “not with a shot in the leg, but in the face".
- Vladimir Putin
- Military
- Russia
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